Friday, December 4, 2009

Dow 11,000?

October non-farm payroll jobs lost went down to -11,000 from -111,000 the previous month - an astonishing number given that the consensus estimated it to be at -125,000. The bullish data may be indicating that the Dow may reach 11,000 in the next few days/weeks. And we can go on even higher if the bearish traders on the sidelines walk their talk and start buying stocks (or covering shorts) now that employment numbers are improving.

What's quite surprising are the simultaneous rallies of both the dollar and equities, which the world hasn't seen in a while. What does this mean? Are we really at a crossroads wherein the inverse correlation between the dollar and equities will soon reverse? Or, is this unusual move telling us that the recent rally in equities is a mere head fake?

No one knows for sure. My stand is neutral. I did say a few days ago that I was already short-term bearish on the markets. But if all the significant indices (Hang Seng, Dow, Shanghai) break out of their patterns, along with a sustained move in the dollar, then I will change my view and be more bullish at least until the earnings season in January.

The Dow entered its current bull market when the dollar started its bear market last March:

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